SI Fantasy analyst Michael Fabiano will provide his favorite values to help offset the expensive studs, and SI Fantasy analyst Ben Heisler goes through several low ownership plays with high upside to help leverage the field.
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Michael Fabiano’s Top DFS Values on DraftKings
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick – Miami ($5,400) vs Seattle
Fitzpatrick has proved that “the beard” is mightier than “the moustache.” Seattle’s defense has allowed eight total touchdowns and the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Additionally, DraftKings Sportsbook has this game with an over/under of 54, leading to a likely high scoring affair between both of these clubs in South Florida.
RB: Mike Davis – Carolina ($5,700) vs Arizona
He’s Christian McCaffrey 2.0!
Well, maybe not, but at $5,700 on DraftKings, he still remains a terrific value. He’s seeing a ton of targets in the Panthers offense: 17 in less than two full games. The Cardinals have given up the third-most receiving yards to running backs as well as nearly 29 DK points/game.
WR: Hunter Renfrow – Las Vegas ($5,400) vs Buffalo
He may be the only Raiders wide receiver who’s left as both Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards are likely to be out this week at home. Last week, Renfrow had six catches on nine targets for 84 yards and a score, and the Bills have allowed more than seven catches/game to slot receivers so far in 2020.
Additional DraftKings DFS Values
QB: Joe Burrow – $6,300 (JAX @ CIN) | Drew Brees – $5,800 (NO @ DET)
RB: Darrell Henderson – $5,800 (NYG@ LAR) | David Johnson – $5,600 (MIN @ HOU)
WR: Odell Beckham Jr. – $5,800 (CLE @ DAL) | Andy Isabella – $4,500 (ARZ @ CAR)
TE: Evan Engram – $4,400 (NYG @ LAR) | Dalton Schultz – $4,300 (CLE @ DAL)
D/ST: Colts – $3,300 @ CHI | Jaguars – $3,000 @ CIN
Ben Heisler’s Top DFS Low Ownership Plays on DraftKings
QB: Drew Brees – New Orleans ($5,800) at Detroit
The Lions have given up the 11th most fantasy points to QBs this season on DraftKings, but what’s even more remarkable is that it’s happened on the fifth fewest pass attempts. They’re getting crushed by the big play and with an over/under at DK Sportsbook of 54.5, this game has major shootout potential written all over it.
Michael Thomas is expected to be back for the Saints this week and with the Lions defense likely locked into man-to-man, Drew Brees can sit back and chuck it around with confidence at low ownership.
Via Matthew Friedman of FantasyLabs, the Lions in 2019 allowed a “league-high 503.2 air yards and yards-after-catch per game, and are third-worst in the NFL in their Pro Football Focus coverage grade.
RB: Josh Jacobs – Las Vegas ($6,600) vs Buffalo
In this week’s DFS RB premium writeup at SI Fantasy PRO, our SI Fantasy High Stakes insider Shawn Childs loves Jacobs this week at home:
The Bills’ defense struggled in back-to-back games (60 points allowed) with running backs gaining 194 combined yards with two touchdowns and eight catches. Jacobs does have a hip issue, which led to him seeing 59 percent of the Raiders’ snaps in Week 2 (78 and 66 percent over the first two games). Based on overall touches and his success at home, Jacobs looks primed to rush for over 100 yards with a pair of touchdowns.
I’m with Childs here. Jacobs has guaranteed volume and the Bills defense has quietly struggled against RBs lately, giving up 114 yards to Darrell Henderson of the Rams last week. Jacobs ownership percentage should be 10% or higher, but I think there’s a chance at 4-6% in tournaments.
TE: T.J. Hockenson – Detroit Lions ($4,900) vs New Orleans
If we’re going to have exposure to the Saints offense this week, Hockenson is the perfect compliment to run-it-back on the Lions side.
At some point, New Orleans is going to get their defensive issues fixed, but for now, it’s a complete mess. The Saints have given up 35.5 points to the Raiders and Packers in their last two games, and have allowed an ASTOUNDING 34 pts/game to TEs in both those games. Their four touchdowns allowed to TEs is tied for the most in the NFL behind the awful Falcons defense.
Hockenson saw his highest number of targets from Matthew Stafford last week in their Week 3 upset over the Cardinals, and should continue to get plenty of red zone chances against the Saints in the middle of the field.
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Benny’s Sneaky Game Stack for Week 4
ARIZONA at CAROLINA
QB: Teddy Bridgewater ($5,600) | RB: Mike Davis ($5,700) | WR: D.J Moore ($5,600)
RUN IT BACK OPTION: RB – Kenyan Drake ($6,000)
As a note, my FAVORITE game stack of the week will be Saints/Lions, but I think from an ownership standpoint, Cardinals/Panthers is less likely to carry as much ownership at multiple positions.
Moore and Drake figure to be popular plays in both cash and GPP lineups, but I think this game isn’t getting enough credit for the type of high scoring environment we could see from both sides with an over/under of 51.
The Cardinals are one of three teams to not force an interception so far in 2020, and Bridgewater’s lone two picks came in their Week 2 road loss to Tampa Bay, when he threw for 367 yards once Christian McCaffrey left the game.
If you’re truly trying to steer clear of high ownership, a pivot from Moore or Davis to Robby Anderson ($5,400) could also be in play. Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson plays to one side of the field, so the Panthers could move Anderson to either side (Moore runs predominantly out of the slot) and take advantage of the mismatches. Anderson also has caught 20 passes on 24 targets while averaging more than 14 yards/reception.
Other Low Ownership / High Upside Targets
QB: Cam Newton ($6,400) NE at KC
RB: Austin Ekeler ($7,100) LAC at TB
RB: David Johnson ($5,600) MIN @ HOU
WR: Julian Edelman ($5,700) NE at KC
WR: Kenny Golladay ($6,000) NO @ DET
WR: Laviska Shenault ($4,400) JAX @ CIN
TE: Dalton Schultz ($4,300) DAL @ CLE
TE: Logan Thomas ($3,500) BAL @ WSH
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