With Week 1 of the NFL season set to kick off Thursday night, we officially kick off NFL DFS season as well! And with another shot at the $4.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire Contest and more at DraftKings, we’re helping you make those important lineup decisions.
Today, SI Fantasy analyst Michael Fabiano will provide his favorite values to help offset the expensive studs, and SI Fantasy analyst Ben Heisler goes through several low ownership plays with high upside to help leverage the field.
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Michael Fabiano’s Top DFS Values on DraftKings
QB: Mitchell Trubisky – Chicago ($5,500) vs New York (Giants)
We’re going with Mitch… again! This week he has the Giants who gave up three touchdowns to Ben Roethlisberger and have allowed an average of over 20 fantasy points per game to QBs since 2019. He’s a very nice DFS value play at $5,500
RB: Benny Snell – Pittsburgh ($4,500) vs Denver
Snell was one of three running backs in Week 3 to rush for over 100 yards. He led all Steelers RBs in snaps and touches once James Conner went down with the injury. If Conner can’t go in Week 2, he’ll face a Broncos defense who gave up over 100 rushing yards to Derrick Henry last week.
WR: Michael Gallup – Dallas ($5,600) vs Atlanta
Gallup led all Cowboys wide receivers in snaps played, and yards per target. And SHOULD HAVE HAD MORE if not for an absurd offensive pass interference call. While I may sound like a disgruntled Cowboys fan, remember that Atlanta gave up 232 yards and 46.4 fantasy points to Seahawks receivers in Week 1. I love CeeDee Lamb in this game as well at $4,700, and expect a high scoring affair at the “Jerry Dome.”
Additional DraftKings DFS Values
QB: Philip Rivers – $5,900 (MIN @ IND) | Jimmy Garoppolo – $5,700 (SF @ NYJ)
RB: J.K. Dobbins – $5,100 (BAL @ HOU) | James Robinson – $4,400 (JAX @ TEN)
WR: Parris Campbell – $4,500 (MIN @ IND) | Scotty Miller – $5,100 (CAR @ TB)
TE: Noah Fant – $4,400 (DEN @ PIT) | Logan Thomas – $3,600 (WSH @ ARZ)
D/ST: Cardinals – $3,000 vs WSH | Buccaneers – $2,900 vs CAR
Ben Heisler’s Top DFS Low Ownership Plays on DraftKings
QB: Tom Brady – Tampa Bay ($6,500) vs Carolina
The narrative that Brady is done is completely ridiculous and I can’t wait to take advantage of it this week. Despite pundits across the country calling him washed and “hot garbage,” Brady still finished ahead of guys like Deshaun Watson and even Patrick Mahomes for fantasy production in Week 1.
His first game of the year was in New Orleans, against a top 3 NFC defense in 2019 according to DVOA at Football Outsiders. This would have been a tough matchup for any quarterback. And now that his head coach called him out publicly, Brady gets a dream matchup to throw up “double birds” on the haters in Week 2 at home in a dream bounceback spot. Only the Vikings were a worse fantasy defense in Week 1 than Carolina/
Nobody is going to want to play Tom Brady this week and I will happily grab him in a dream bounceback scenario with low ownership.
RB: David Johnson – Houston ($5,800) vs Baltimore
Johnson was the lone bright spot for the Texans in the Week 1 season opener against Kansas City. He finished with 109 total yards and a receiving touchdown, while averaging 7.7 yards/attempt on the ground.
This game will likely feature a similar game script as Week 1, with Johnson needing to be active both as a pass catcher and runner to try and keep up with Baltimore’s offense. Via FantasyLabs, the combination of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt last week still put up just under 19 DraftKings points against the Ravens, and should have had more if not for a few fumbles. D.J. is one of my favorite leverage plays off of Colts RB Jonathan Taylor ($5,700) as the chalk running back of the week.
WR: A.J. Brown – Tennessee ($6,100) vs Jacksonville
We recorded this video before Brown popped on the injury report with a knee injury, but if he’s able to go, this is a terrific “squeaky wheel” opportunity to bounce back from Monday night.
In the two games Brown played Jacksonville a season ago, he averaged just under 28 yards/reception against them, while averaging right around 14 yards/target.
Corey Davis was the story in Week 1 with 7 catches on 8 targets for 101 yards, but Brown also saw 8 targets as well. If healthy, he should bounce back with ease.
NOTE: If Brown is unable to go, consider pivoting to Keenan Allen vs the Chiefs at ($5,700). In his last two outings vs KC, Allen saw 22 targets, caught 17 passes for 153 yards and a touchdown in both games.
Benny’s Favorite Low Ownership Stacks for Week 1
Minnesota vs INDIANAPOLIS
QB: Philip Rivers ($5,900) I WR: T.Y. Hilton ($5,700) I WR: Parris Campbell ($4,500)
RUN IT BACK OPTION: WR: Adam Thielen ($7,200)
Rivers threw the ball 46 times last week against Jacksonville for 363 yards and a touchdown, so any indication that he would be some sort of game manager with a heavy running game has not been established as of yet. While the performance in general was sub-optimal, he now gets the Vikings at home who gave up four passing touchdowns and 43 points at home to the Packers in Week 1. Hilton and Campbell saw a combined 18 targets vs the Jaguars, and are a great pivot from Jonathan Taylor while keeping exposure in this matchup.
WASHINGTON vs Arizona
QB: Dwayne Haskins ($5,100) I WR: Terry McLaurin ($5,900) I TE: Logan Thomas ($3,600)
RUN IT BACK OPTION: RB: Kenyon Drake ($5,900)
Haskins’ overall numbers weren’t great against the Eagles in their Week 1 win, but he completed 80% of his passes in the red zone including a touchdown to TE Logan Thomas. With Kyler Murray looking like he may be an MVP candidate this year, Washington will need to throw early and often to keep up with Arizona’s fast-paced offense. Haskins targeted McLaurin and Thomas a total of 15 times last week. While Arizona kept George Kittle out of the end zone in Week 1, they still allowed 16 total touchdowns a season ago to tight ends, by far the worst in the NFL.
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